r/Glasgow Tools

Title
Author	meepmeep13
Comment	They can, but [the mean incubation period is 6 days, and 95% of cases within 10 days](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000062). Basically if you convolve this distribution with the fact that the transmission might occur at any point in those first 7 days, then the chances of anyone being infectious in a household after 14 days of self-isolation are very low. Not zero, but very low. So those numbers have been chosen as a balance between risk of further transmission against the issues caused by self-isolation and the likelihood of the instructions being ignored.
Reddit Link	https://www.reddit.com/r/glasgow/comments/fnzvo4/daily_discussion_for_coronavirus_covid19_24_march/fld7xrh/
Created	Tue 24th Mar 2020 2:05pm
Status	normal ()

They can, but [the mean incubation period is 6 days, and 95% of cases within 10 days](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000062). Basically if you convolve this distribution with the fact that the transmission might occur at any point in those first 7 days, then the chances of anyone being infectious in a household after 14 days of self-isolation are very low. Not zero, but very low.

So those numbers have been chosen as a balance between risk of further transmission against the issues caused by self-isolation and the likelihood of the instructions being ignored.