| Comment | It's pretty clear that there's going to have to be *some* kind of measures in place until a vaccine is available, which puts us into late 2021 / early 2022, but it's really far too early to tell how extreme those measures will have to be, and we'll see from the stats that come out of the countries already starting to relax restrictions.
It's very unlikely we're going to need to stay in the current lockdown for that period, though - as with the Imperial study, it will likely be an alternating relaxation/reintroduction of measures as the number of cases increases/recedes, and likely only back to a full lockdown come the winter peak.
The key thing that's going to allow us to ease restrictions more fully pending a vaccine is mass testing. How fast we can get that working like South Korea is inherently going to define how much freedom we can have. |
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