r/Glasgow Tools

Title
Author	Celtivo
Comment	> Why not? It's literally the strategy that was proposed from the beginning, back in the Imperial report in March that instructed the first lockdown. That modelling clearly showed the need for repeated cycles of increasing restrictions every few months, in particular in the winter season. If you think that shutting down entire industries at a whim is a valid and sustainable strategy long term, then I'm really not even sure where to start. If this sort of strategy continues into next year or whenever a vaccine arrives, the economy will be absolutely annihilated for generations to come. > ....yes? Although not just a vaccine, in the shorter term therapeutic treatments may become available that mean we can greatly restrict transmission, and of course the better we get at testing and tracing the more loose we can be with restrictions Same as my last point. We can't stay in a state where entire industries and shut down months at a time long term. Restrictions like social distancing, limits on gatherings, visiting peoples homes, sure. But closing down massive chunks of the economy isn't sustainable. > There is no eradication plan, Maybe my terminology is wrong, but Sturgeon was banging on about eradication (or whatever the word is) for all of June/July/August. It was the reason we had the longest lockdown in Europe, and the major cons the country that entailed. > If R and prevalence get beyond a certain point, we go to widespread infection in a matter of weeks Yes, but is possible to reach a point with the right level of restrictions where the R number is 0.8-1.2. >At the moment we are facing prevalence being higher than in March within 3 weeks I get that, which is why it's clear how horribly poor this has been handled over the past couple of months the fact we are in this position. But shutting down the entire hospitality industry isn't guaranteed to prevent that from happening, nor is it even likely. What is guaranteed is that it signs the death warrant of thousands of businesses and jobs. 80%+ of new infections are happening either in peoples homes, or other places. How about we shut down the businesses that arn't enforcing the restrictions rather than this blanket 'kill the industry' move? > Fundamentally, hospitality = socialising = people in close proximity = infections. Like above, its possible for hospitality and socialising to be done in a relatively safe way, as many businesses have shown (I'm not suggesting it doesn't drive infections to an extent). Hospitality is not the driver of the current wave of infections. > What do you actually propose for this? I don't know the exact answer, but I would start by actually handing out the big fines to people who are breaking the rules. Most of my family just don't give a fuck, and will continue to not give a fuck despite any restrictions. Until they hear about a friend who's been slammed with a £1000 fine, they'll continue to do what they do.
Reddit Link	https://www.reddit.com/r/glasgow/comments/j6rp0c/pubs_and_restaurants_in_central_scotland_to_close/g80ppzo/
Created	Wed 7th Oct 2020 6:02pm
Status	normal ()

> Why not? It's literally the strategy that was proposed from the beginning, back in the Imperial report in March that instructed the first lockdown. That modelling clearly showed the need for repeated cycles of increasing restrictions every few months, in particular in the winter season.

If you think that shutting down entire industries at a whim is a valid and sustainable strategy long term, then I'm really not even sure where to start. If this sort of strategy continues into next year or whenever a vaccine arrives, the economy will be absolutely annihilated for generations to come.

> ....yes? Although not just a vaccine, in the shorter term therapeutic treatments may become available that mean we can greatly restrict transmission, and of course the better we get at testing and tracing the more loose we can be with restrictions

Same as my last point. We can't stay in a state where entire industries and shut down months at a time long term. Restrictions like social distancing, limits on gatherings, visiting peoples homes, sure. But closing down massive chunks of the economy isn't sustainable.

> There is no eradication plan,

Maybe my terminology is wrong, but Sturgeon was banging on about eradication (or whatever the word is) for all of June/July/August. It was the reason we had the longest lockdown in Europe, and the major cons the country that entailed.

> If R and prevalence get beyond a certain point, we go to widespread infection in a matter of weeks

Yes, but is possible to reach a point with the right level of restrictions where the R number is 0.8-1.2.

>At the moment we are facing prevalence being higher than in March within 3 weeks

I get that, which is why it's clear how horribly poor this has been handled over the past couple of months the fact we are in this position. But shutting down the entire hospitality industry isn't guaranteed to prevent that from happening, nor is it even likely. What is guaranteed is that it signs the death warrant of thousands of businesses and jobs. 80%+ of new infections are happening either in peoples homes, or other places. How about we shut down the businesses that arn't enforcing the restrictions rather than this blanket 'kill the industry' move?

> Fundamentally, hospitality = socialising = people in close proximity = infections.

Like above, its possible for hospitality and socialising to be done in a relatively safe way, as many businesses have shown (I'm not suggesting it doesn't drive infections to an extent). Hospitality is not the driver of the current wave of infections.

> What do you actually propose for this?

I don't know the exact answer, but I would start by actually handing out the big fines to people who are breaking the rules. Most of my family just don't give a fuck, and will continue to not give a fuck despite any restrictions. Until they hear about a friend who's been slammed with a £1000 fine, they'll continue to do what they do.