r/Glasgow Tools

Title
Author	dl064
Comment	I think they're in a tough position. They have to be seen to do something, and ideally Scotland Public Health likes to get one over/be 'better' than England (I've heard this from the horse's mouth, as my wife/colleague met Calderwood and her team a few times). I think some of the analyses are a bit of a stretch: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2020/10/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-issue-no-21/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-21/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-21/govscot%3Adocument/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-21.pdf But I do see Leitch's point recently that there's no direct textbook for this stuff, and you can't be the team that got it wrong. Sky News have a nice piece on Youtube on it, where they were saying 'okay, things are getting worse: but this time we've more equipment generally, we're better at treating it, we know how to slow it. A rematch would go a bit differently'. I understand from folk who were there that some NHS services in Glasgow were run off their feet, but some were very quiet and basically twiddling their thumbs. The ones that had a tough time have more resource this time around. They're not closing schools is the fact of the matter; I do wonder how bad things would have to get for them to do that. Some of that is economy, some of it is that there was a bit of noise last time that education is a WHO human right, and you can't deprive kids of that, given we now have (much better) data that there were massive and stark deprivation differences in how kids took to online learning. So no to that barn door solution. I think banning booze is a reasonable next step; which incidentally is quite different from the first impression they gave that anywhere that is capable of serving booze must close. So yes: on reflection, I don't think it's a simple yes/no but I agree. I think people who are extremely confident either way - total lockdown vs. preserve the economy - are wrong, and the truth is in the middle.
Reddit Link	https://www.reddit.com/r/glasgow/comments/j7nouy/is_closing_down_glasgow_pubs_and_restaurants_for/g87bgdl/
Created	Fri 9th Oct 2020 11:22am
Status	normal ()

I think they're in a tough position.

They have to be seen to do something, and ideally Scotland Public Health likes to get one over/be 'better' than England (I've heard this from the horse's mouth, as my wife/colleague met Calderwood and her team a few times).

I think some of the analyses are a bit of a stretch: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2020/10/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-issue-no-21/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-21/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-21/govscot%3Adocument/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-21.pdf

But I do see Leitch's point recently that there's no direct textbook for this stuff, and you can't be the team that got it wrong.

Sky News have a nice piece on Youtube on it, where they were saying 'okay, things are getting worse: but this time we've more equipment generally, we're better at treating it, we know how to slow it. A rematch would go a bit differently'. I understand from folk who were there that some NHS services in Glasgow were run off their feet, but some were very quiet and basically twiddling their thumbs. The ones that had a tough time have more resource this time around.

They're not closing schools is the fact of the matter; I do wonder how bad things would have to get for them to do that. Some of that is economy, some of it is that there was a bit of noise last time that education is a WHO human right, and you can't deprive kids of that, given we now have (much better) data that there were massive and stark deprivation differences in how kids took to online learning. So no to that barn door solution.

I think banning booze is a reasonable next step; which incidentally is quite different from the first impression they gave that anywhere that is *capable* of serving booze must close.

So yes: on reflection, I don't think it's a simple yes/no but I agree. I think people who are extremely confident either way - total lockdown vs. preserve the economy - are wrong, and the truth is in the middle.