| Comment | I understand your frustration, but the three week lockdown actually did it's job, by bringing the R number to below 1 (o think it was about 0.6). The issue is with the new variant of covid going about, if it's 70% more transmissible then you can essentially multiply the R number by 1.7 to get the reproduction rate of the new variant.
What the means, is even if tier 4 is stuck to, it's likely the R number will still hover around 1, even with tier 4 in place (as opposed to dropping to 0.6 again).
I'd wager that of this new variant continues spreading we could be in tier 4 until the middle of 2021 (although this may age like milk). |
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