| Comment | That was at a point when no vaccines existed and we had no idea about the epidemiology. The 3 weeks was what was originally legislated for as a first step, nobody claimed (least of all the scientists) that would be the end of it - the Imperial model that was used as government evidence for that legislation had I think 6 months of interventions as a baseline.
Now that we know more, based on the typical time lag between interventions and transmission rates, I'd guess we're looking at a 2 week extension of level 3. Again, we'll just have to see. Nobody has a crystal ball, each new variant has different epidemiology, and it of course also depends how seriously people take the restrictions.
Bottom line is, cases go up, we need more restrictions to prevent more extensive outbreaks. Cases go down, we can remove them. At the moment they're going up. This bit isn't ~~rocket~~ viral science. |
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