r/Glasgow Tools

Title
Author	meepmeep13
Comment	It's essentially a ratcheting mechanism. The main problem with countries trying to decarbonise is that it affects trade competition - if internal policies raise their costs of export, then it's detrimental to national income because a neighbouring country with lower environmental commitments will have cheaper exports. If you can get all the countries to agree simultaneous reductions of a similar order of magnitude (as, essentially, the EU has already done internally) then that disparity in trade disappears and you can use that level of commitment as the basis for the next COP, get to the next level of ambition, and so on. We're now in a world where most economies now see the overall economic benefit of moving to low-carbon tech (in terms of air quality, health outcomes, energy resilience, internal economic and social development), for most countries it's really just this trade imbalance that needs to be resolved, and so each successive COP should see us ratcheting (ever too slowly) towards a 2C or maybe possibly 1.5C goal. I think COP26 got us to 2.4C - a long way behind where we want to be, but the trajectory is right. Of course there are still some basket case countries out there: Russia that wants global warming to destabilise the west and open up arctic shipping, USA being in a permanent political deadlock between the centre right and a death cult, Australia that is somewhat in denial of its place on the frontline of the apocalypse. But broadly domestic political will exists across the globe in a way it previously didn't - green policies win elections. There's also a parallel discussion on how this trade issue can be resolved by the use of cross-border carbon tariffs (i.e. emissions are priced into exports), which was also a big part of COP26 discussions, as well as the financing side which is redirecting money to low-carbon tech on a massive scale (this is why it was a good thing the city was full of loud suited wankers for the conference, it's a sign the big banks are now on board because they definitely don't care about climate change in and of itself).
Reddit Link	https://www.reddit.com/r/glasgow/comments/v0snik/the_steamie_monday_30_may_2022/iaj91t6/
Created	Mon 30th May 2022 12:43pm
Status	normal ()

It's essentially a ratcheting mechanism. The main problem with countries trying to decarbonise is that it affects trade competition - if internal policies raise their costs of export, then it's detrimental to national income because a neighbouring country with lower environmental commitments will have cheaper exports.

If you can get all the countries to agree simultaneous reductions of a similar order of magnitude (as, essentially, the EU has already done internally) then that disparity in trade disappears and you can use that level of commitment as the basis for the next COP, get to the next level of ambition, and so on.

We're now in a world where most economies now see the overall economic benefit of moving to low-carbon tech (in terms of air quality, health outcomes, energy resilience, internal economic and social development), for most countries it's really just this trade imbalance that needs to be resolved, and so each successive COP should see us ratcheting (ever too slowly) towards a 2C or maybe possibly 1.5C goal. I think COP26 got us to 2.4C - a long way behind where we want to be, but the trajectory is right. Of course there are still some basket case countries out there: Russia that wants global warming to destabilise the west and open up arctic shipping, USA being in a permanent political deadlock between the centre right and a death cult, Australia that is somewhat in denial of its place on the frontline of the apocalypse. But broadly domestic political will exists across the globe in a way it previously didn't - green policies win elections.

There's also a parallel discussion on how this trade issue can be resolved by the use of cross-border carbon tariffs (i.e. emissions are priced into exports), which was also a big part of COP26 discussions, as well as the financing side which is redirecting money to low-carbon tech on a massive scale (this is why it was a *good thing* the city was full of loud suited wankers for the conference, it's a sign the big banks are now on board because they definitely don't care about climate change in and of itself).