r/Glasgow Tools

Title
Author	Galstar82
Comment	Don’t mean to be the negative head here but it isn’t going to change anytime soon, the house price crash headlines are a lot of bullshit. Property purchases aren’t as dependent on the economy as other assets as they are purely driven by supply and demand, a recession might lower the number of potential buyers but there will still be enough to sustain prices at a high level. They might dip slightly but nothing like 2007 or the 90’s crash. Although there are all these headlines about interest rate rises being catastrophic we need to remember they are still at an historic low, in 2007 I had a mortgage of £70k and paid just under £500 a month, now I have a mortgage of £180 odd K and pay less than £800. Mortgages are still cheap compared to what they used to be. The only thing that would lower house prices is a massive rate increase which forces people to sell their homes/repossessions and creates a homelessness crisis. Again unlikely to happen, in my opinion interest rates will go up steadily to about 3.0%. The affordability criteria applied by banks since 2007 means that very few homes will be unable to afford this rise and the market won’t become flooded with available homes. Plus there’s not really any such thing as a generic housing market, each area has different demand. The South Side has always seen high demand and prices are far more unlikely to drop than areas outside the city like Cumbernauld etc… Coupled with the fact that there are drivers that people will always be willing to pay for, take Giffnock for example where a normal 3 bed semi is going to skin you a fair bit over £300k. This is about twice the amount of a similar house in garrowhill or mount vernon (also a cracking area) and a fair whack over neighbouring Muirend (which for all intensive purposes is the same place). Nothing to do with the areas really though but everything to do with the school catchments. The fact Giffnock is landlocked with no real room to build will sustain prices there even if there’s a dip. Compared with Newton Mearns where even though the school catchments are similar prices are lower because of the amount of new builds being built halfway to Ayr. What I would say is give yourself an amount and just stick to it, not everything goes for massive amounts over. We paid 9% over for our current house and two days before we completed it we were contacted about a previous bid where we put in 3% over, apparently 2 other people were ahead of us months earlier but didn’t get the finance so the sellers were left without a buyer and had 3 weeks to move and now we’re desperate for our bid that they initially knocked back. We didn’t take them up in it but it does happen.
Reddit Link	https://www.reddit.com/r/glasgow/comments/vhg6be/buying_flat_experiences/id8rl43/
Created	Wed 22nd Jun 2022 12:52am
Status	normal ()

Don’t mean to be the negative head here but it isn’t going to change anytime soon, the house price crash headlines are a lot of bullshit.

Property purchases aren’t as dependent on the economy as other assets as they are purely driven by supply and demand, a recession might lower the number of potential buyers but there will still be enough to sustain prices at a high level.

They might dip slightly but nothing like 2007 or the 90’s crash.

Although there are all these headlines about interest rate rises being catastrophic we need to remember they are still at an historic low, in 2007 I had a mortgage of £70k and paid just under £500 a month, now I have a mortgage of £180 odd K and pay less than £800.

Mortgages are still cheap compared to what they used to be.

The only thing that would lower house prices is a massive rate increase which forces people to sell their homes/repossessions and creates a homelessness crisis.

Again unlikely to happen, in my opinion interest rates will go up steadily to about 3.0%. The affordability criteria applied by banks since 2007 means that very few homes will be unable to afford this rise and the market won’t become flooded with available homes.

Plus there’s not really any such thing as a generic housing market, each area has different demand.

The South Side has always seen high demand and prices are far more unlikely to drop than areas outside the city like Cumbernauld etc…

Coupled with the fact that there are drivers that people will always be willing to pay for, take Giffnock for example where a normal 3 bed semi is going to skin you a fair bit over £300k. This is about twice the amount of a similar house in garrowhill or mount vernon (also a cracking area) and a fair whack over neighbouring Muirend (which for all intensive purposes is the same place). Nothing to do with the areas really though but everything to do with the school catchments. The fact Giffnock is landlocked with no real room to build will sustain prices there even if there’s a dip.

Compared with Newton Mearns where even though the school catchments are similar prices are lower because of the amount of new builds being built halfway to Ayr.

What I would say is give yourself an amount and just stick to it, not everything goes for massive amounts over. We paid 9% over for our current house and two days before we completed it we were contacted about a previous bid where we put in 3% over, apparently 2 other people were ahead of us months earlier but didn’t get the finance so the sellers were left without a buyer and had 3 weeks to move and now we’re desperate for our bid that they initially knocked back. We didn’t take them up in it but it does happen.