r/Glasgow Tools

Title
Author	meepmeep13
Comment	Long story short, pre-Ukraine gas prices were already predicted to increase substantially in 2022 due to a) post-covid demand rebound and b) lack of stored gas due to a very long winter in Asia and parts of Europe in 2021, but not by anywhere this order of magnitude But then you add on the Ukraine situation, cutting off a huge component of gas flows into the European market, and that has hugely exacerbated the situation. Additionally you also have countries attempting to replenish depleted long-term gas stores going into the next winter (to hedge against what might be even worse prices) Nothing is predominantly to blame, but it is a perfect storm of conditions. Some elements may relax in the next year or so, such which might mean this winter should be the peak, but even in the medium term we're going to still see pretty high prices. That also assumes there's no further shitstorms to come (watch South China Sea shenanigans closely) A better way to look at it is that for the past 3 decades we've been complacent about artificially low gas prices, which we shouldn't have taken for granted, and that we are woefully underprepared for 'real' gas prices There are long-term solutions - we can wean ourselves off gas by the end of this decade, and have been on that path anyway - but there's not much that will make a dent as soon as this winter. Everyone who can lobby for a windfall tax already is, and either Truss/Sunak has their hand forced by a recession, or it awaits a Labour government who would surely win an election if the Tories don't do anything about this. But even a windfall tax won't make much of a dent.
Reddit Link	https://www.reddit.com/r/glasgow/comments/wf6kxc/housing_and_the_upcoming_utility_bills_nightmare/iishkdu/
Created	Wed 3rd Aug 2022 4:12pm
Status	normal ()

Long story short, pre-Ukraine gas prices were already predicted to increase substantially in 2022 due to a) post-covid demand rebound and b) lack of stored gas due to a very long winter in Asia and parts of Europe in 2021, but not by anywhere this order of magnitude

But then you add on the Ukraine situation, cutting off a huge component of gas flows into the European market, and that has hugely exacerbated the situation.

Additionally you also have countries attempting to replenish depleted long-term gas stores going into the next winter (to hedge against what might be even worse prices)

Nothing is predominantly to blame, but it is a perfect storm of conditions. Some elements may relax in the next year or so, such which might mean this winter should be the peak, but even in the medium term we're going to still see pretty high prices. That also assumes there's no further shitstorms to come (watch South China Sea shenanigans closely)

A better way to look at it is that for the past 3 decades we've been complacent about artificially low gas prices, which we shouldn't have taken for granted, and that we are woefully underprepared for 'real' gas prices

There are long-term solutions - we can wean ourselves off gas by the end of this decade, and have been on that path anyway - but there's not much that will make a dent as soon as this winter.

Everyone who can lobby for a windfall tax already is, and either Truss/Sunak has their hand forced by a recession, or it awaits a Labour government who would surely win an election if the Tories don't do anything about this. But even a windfall tax won't make much of a dent.