r/Glasgow Tools

I know we're all sick of the restrictions - I mean certainly am. It's been a year of this when they were only supposed to last a few weeks. They especially seem unreasonable with how well the vaccination programme is going. It's even worse hearing the repeating "restrictions are lifted!" headlines this morning on all the major TV and radio stations...but there is science behind this.

Here are a few of the arguments I have heard being used:

###All Vulnerable People Have Already Been Vaccinated

Almost everyone identified as clinically vulnerable has been vaccinated now, yes...**but** - the vaccine is not 100% effective, as seen in [Bolton](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57134500.amp). It tends to be the least effective in people with compromised or aging immune system (the clinically vulnerable). The vaccine also does not appear to entirely prevent the transmission of the virus, although it does [significantly reduce it](https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-vaccines-do-reduce-transmission-how-does-work) according to early data.

Additionally, not everyone that is clinically vulnerable *knows* that they are clinically vulnerable. People are not always aware that they have an underlying health condition, or that their condition puts them at a higher risk of serious illness or death.

###Virus Cases are Low, and We Will Never Get to Zero!

Virus cases *are* low right now, which is why some restrictions have been lifted so far. The issue is that cases are no longer falling in Glasgow - they are actually rising. We were at around 53 cases per 100k last week, but we are now sitting at 94.5 cases per 100k as of yesterday. Those might seem like infinitesimal numbers, but here's where the R value comes into play.

When cases are falling, the R value sits below 1. For example, if it's at 0.5 it means that every 2 people with COVID are only spreading it to 1 person (falling case numbers). If cases are growing, it means that everyone that has COVID are, on average, spreading it to more than 1 other person. With worrying variants like [B.1.617.2](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Emergence-of-SARS-CoV-2-B.1.617-variants-in-India-and-situation-in-the-EUEEA.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjm6syNptDwAhUDqXEKHaiHADEQFjADegQIDBAC&usg=AOvVaw3N9qhz8aGgEqexbefsAJhJ) (the "Indian Variant" seemingly at the centre of the outbreak in the Southside) that potentially becomes an even bigger issue. Early evidence suggests the Variant could be as much as [60% more transmissible](https://WWW.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk), which means that activities that were not previously spreading COVID could now do. It also means that the spread will accelerate much more quickly. [This Infograph]() shows an illustrative spread at an R-rate of 2-2.5, now imagine how much more quickly it would spread at an R-rate or 3-5.

###The Restrictions Being Lifted at Christmas Were Not Driven by Science!
(Or other "X" restriction was for the economy argument)

The planned relaxation at Christmas was supposed to be possible because we had headroom in our R-rate from the lockdown in the preceeding rates. So while it is correct that being able to meet at Christmas was not exactly driven by science in itself, it was done with a view that the R-rate would maintain below 1, and that the NHS had spare capacity, even if Christmas drove a higher spread.

As for other "X restriction was not driven by science" arguments - it's are erroneous. Have you ever gotten yourself out of a speeding ticket by arguing that another driver was also speeding? The virus doesn't care that